Dem Retirements May Help the GOP in 2024

( – A recent rash of Democrats declining to run for re-election has left a number of seats open to competition in the upcoming 2024 elections. While many are simply retiring from politics altogether, others are looking to leave their roles in Congress in order to campaign for other positions, such as Governor, or in Democrat Rep. Dean Phillips’ case, President of the United States.

The list of soon-to-be retirees comprises over 30 lawmakers, and does include some Republicans, but those GOP members are understood to represent areas that can be relied upon to vote Republican, regardless of who is running for election. The only exception to this rule so far is that of Rep. George Santos in New York, who may face an “expulsion vote” after “substantial” evidence of lawbreaking was found against him by the House Ethics Committee.

Many of the Democrat seats are in their turn reliably ‘blue’, with the exception of four currently Democratic seats that could swing either way. These vital seats cover districts in California, Michigan, and Virginia, and look set to be opened up to vigorous competition come election time.

David Wasserman, elections analyst for The Cook Political Report, claims that an important factor in the Democrats’ victories in the 2022 mid-term elections was down to spending. He says that the Democrats spent a great deal more on their campaigning and that this helped them to secure some seats even while they lost control over the House. This time, he believes that the spending is likely to be more even across the two main parties as they go toe-to-toe in the soon-to-be vacated seats.

Some Democrat lawmakers looking to extend their decades-long careers in the face of their colleagues’ retirements, with octogenarians Rep. Maxine Waters and Rep. Nancy Pelosi both announcing their intention to run for re-election next year. If successful, Waters will be serving her 18th term In Congress, while Pelosi would mark her 20th in Congress.

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